Inflation-based monetary policy action unlikely
Inflation may ease to 3.8% in 1QFY25; Surprise Q4 growth possible
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New Delhi: Inflation came in line with market expectations, however, industrial output came in slightly lower than expected, as per Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
At the same time, real GDP growth came in much better than expected for 3QFY24. With continued robustness in HFIs for January 2024 and February 2024, there is a possibility of positive surprise for 4QFY24 GDP growth as well.
“We see inflation at 5.4 per cent in 4QFY24, before easing to 3.8 per cent in 1QFY25. Thus, we do not see any monetary policy action based on inflation or growth this year,” the brokerage said. India’s industrial output growth slowed to 3.80 per cent during January 2024 as compared with 4.25 per cent during December 2023.
